So, in Sunday’s big Rugby World Cup quarterfinal in Paris the Springboks will be looking to a kicking game and set piece dominance while France will be looking to carry the ball and play with more freedom?

If you believe that, you might also believe Jean-Pierre Rives is still playing for France and Gerald Bosch or Naas Botha are still wearing the South African No 10.

Not that it should really be needed as it has been obvious that the Boks have evolved their game in recent months, but a statistical piece released overnight by World Rugby gives the lie to the old perception and the lazy throw ahead to Sunday focused on the Boks needing to repeat their feat of the 2019 final in Yokohama by monstering their opponents in the scrums, being perfect in the lineouts and winning the territory battle.

Actually, the stats from the Pool phase of competition might also indicate the Boks might struggle to rely on that template even if they wanted to. Their lineouts and scrums haven’t been nearly as sound at this tournament as they were in Japan four years ago either.

FRANCE DON’T MIND PLAYING WITHOUT THE BALL

But first to that old view of the two teams and the jarring statistic that gives you an alternative view and expectation: The French ended the group phase as one of the form teams and are arguably joint favourites with Ireland to win the competition, but they’ve played well while not exactly being possession orientated.

Le Bleus are happy to play without the ball, kicking over 30 times a game on average, which is a high number. They rank only fifth among the quarterfinalists when it comes to carries, averaging 119 per game.

By contrast to France, South Africa only kicked on average 20 times per game. Of course, there is always a lie aspect to the group phase, and not all teams reveal their hand, and it is interesting that the Boks are delaying the announcement of their team for Sunday’s game until Friday. They’d normally have been naming it on Wednesday as they subscribe to the philosophy that the opposition know how they are going to play, it is up to those opponents to be able to stop them, which is less easy to do than say it.

BOK GAME TO BE DETERMINED BY FLYHALF SELECTION

It should almost go without saying though that the way the Boks play in the quarterfinal will be determined by the flyhalf that starts the game. If Handre Pollard is wearing the No 10, the Boks will rely more on the boot. If Manie Libbok is the starting pivot, the Boks will continue with their trend of kicking less than they used to.

It is as simple as that, although it might not be as simplistic a case as the Boks suddenly becoming the old Boks again and reverting away from what they’ve become used to playing and which got them out of a tough Pool in this tournament.

There is a lot of merit in playing without the ball and just being more efficient when you have it, and it was underlined by Ireland in what became their deciding Pool B game against Scotland.

Ireland were convincing winners, but it was their opponents who enjoyed most of the possession and it prompted a headline in one of the Irish newspapers that proclaimed: “Scotland won the stats but lost the match”.

Ireland made just 126 carries in the match to the 175 from Scotland, they also made significantly less meters in the match to Scotland’s, and while Ireland missed 27 tackles to Scotland’s 15, they were also forced to make significantly more tackles – 222 (195 completed) against 155 (140 completed).

And yet Ireland scored six tries to two in the game, and it was 6-0 when at a point in the second half Ireland already had the game won and their attitude was reflected by the emptying of their bench. That backs up what almost everyone said both post-match and subsequently – Ireland were more clinical with their finishing and more efficient with the way they used the ball when they had it.

That though is where there should be concern about the Bok chances if they do carry the ball against France on Sunday. Ireland is efficient when they carry, their ball retention is second to none once they get hold of it, and they showed that when they narrowly beat the reigning World Cup champions in their Pool standoff nearly three weeks ago.

FRENCH BETTER WITH THE BALL

The stats from that game showed that the Boks had enough possession to win the game. They just didn’t do enough with the ball, and did not protect it enough, as shown by the ruck/maul statistics from that game as well as the bad pass stats, when they did have it.

And France have been better in this tournament too when they have the ball. The French have kept the ball alive better than anyone else, averaging 11.8 offloads per game and the second most line breaks (10.5). The Boks have by contrast conceded the join most turnovers (17) and the worst positive outcomes for any team (60 per cent), which translates to four out of every 10 possessions ending in error. If the Boks were schoolboys in class, the teacher would say “Just not good enough”.

And there’s more that plays back against any perception that the Boks can make headway against France by running through them – the overall stats for the tournament so far show that France has the highest collision dominance related to their carries (48 per cent), with the Boks only ranked seventh in this regard among the eight quarterfinalists with 38 per cent.

STATS DON’T ALWAYS TELL FULL STORY

However, this may be a case of statistics not telling the whole story, and to some extent perhaps the earlier ones too. The Boks, because they were in the supposed Pool of Death, played tougher opposition across the four matches than France did, and some other teams would have had even less to run through given the lopsidedness of the draw. Ireland and Scotland were tough top five ranked opponents, while Tonga arrived at the last Pool game with a desire to play and produced their finest performance of the competition.

Here is where we return to that earlier point about the Boks not being as good at the set pieces as they were in 2019, which mitigates against any perception of route one for the Boks to the semifinals being the set-piece and territory orientated approach that got them into the Yokohama final four years ago.

What should be disturbing to the Boks, for it has been noticeable even without consulting the stats, is the way their set scrum has failed to be the launch pad for success that it was in the decisive phase of the 2019 tournament. The South Africans have lost the most scrums of the group of quarterfinalists and have the second worst success rate at 81 per cent against France’s 94 per cent.

They also trail France, and many other teams in the lineouts, where their 89 per cent success rate is only fifth best while France are third best with a 94 per cent success rate.

Add to all of this the fact France have not been giving away many penalties in a game – not a surprise for the host nation playing in front of vocal crowds frankly – with just eight per match from their four so far, while the Boks average only 1.5 points per game from outside the 22 with the boot, and it becomes easy why many see the Boks as underdogs. It isn’t just that they are the away team on Sunday, the statistics back up that they are a team that needs improvement.

Yet the Boks know that they might even want that, and there’s never been anything more dangerous than a South African rugby team at a World Cup that has been written off.

Source: Super Sport